Extreme rainfall induced risk mapping for metro transit systems: Shanghai metro network as a case
文章作者(*为通讯):
1. Dongming Zhang 1,3,*
2. Hao Bai 1,3
3. Canzheng Zheng 5
4. Hongwei Huang 1,3
5. Bilal M. Ayyub 2,3,4
6. Wenjun Cao 6
作者单位:
1.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Minister of Education and Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongii University, Shanghai 200092, China
2.Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD,20742, USA
3.International Joint Research Center for Resilient Infrastructure, Tongji University, China
4.Applied Economics Office, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce, USA
5.Jinan Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd, Jinan, China
6.Department of Civil Engineering, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
关键词:
Risk assessment; Metro flooding; Extreme rainfall; Multi-layer network; Resilience.
原文链接:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111234







In recent years, a changing climate has induced flood risk as a great threat to the safety and reliability of the metro transit network in mega-cities. A highly networked metro system can lead to a quick spread of this risk, and furthermore, the impact range of single-node accidents of a network is nonlinearly amplified through network connectedness defined by its topology. This study proposes a risk assessment framework integrating extreme rainfall simulation and network loss analysis. The methodology employs the Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) to model rainfall-induced flooding, coupled with a multi-layer network-based approach that distinguishes topological interactions between stations and lines. Taking Shanghai metro as an example, this paper highlights its risk follows an exponential distribution to extreme rainfall events, characterized by the finding that nearly 50 % of extreme rainfall events result in <5 % network loss, whereas fewer than 5 % of the events lead to >50 % network loss. When rainfall centers are located in the urban center where metro stations are densely distributed and intricately connected, or when the rainfall intensity and the spatial distribution uncertainty increases, it will pose a greater risk to the metro network.
相关推荐:轨道交通展展位预订 轨道交通展免费报名参观

2026年7月,随着燃油价格连续两轮上调,各地老旧柴油货车淘汰置换节奏加快。与此同时,交通运输部、国家发展改革委等十一部门联合印发《推动新能源重卡规模化应用实施方案》,各地配套细则陆续落地,全面激活新能源重卡市场。多重利好政策加持下,7月吉利远程新能源商用车整体销量18486台,1-7月累计销量107589辆,同比增长37.8%。重卡、轻商、客车全线批量交付,国内多场景落地、海外多国登顶,以全赛道强势表现领跑行业。 重卡大宗运力绿动升级 交付签约齐头并进 重卡赛道,吉利远程7月销量同比增长46.1%。面对宏观政策对于新能源重卡发展的积极引导,远程充分发挥“甲醇电动+纯电动”两大核心技术路线带来的全场景优势,积极推动新能源重卡在煤炭、砂石、商砼、港口短倒、城市置换等场景的落地应用。从西边宁夏的煤炭砂石大宗运输批量签约交付,到河北邯郸大宗物资转运交付现场再获批量订单,再到浙江温州地区纯电搅拌车交付开启,及杭州老旧柴油货车淘汰政策宣贯现场全系新能源重卡亮相,远程新能源重卡下半年开启加速冲刺。 轻商深耕城配民生 定制车型拓宽应用新边界 7月,吉利远程轻商成功开拓民生医疗全新细分市场,销量同比增长36.6%,持续领跑新能源物流车赛道。...